A journal for what you think will happen — and how often you're right.
Every entry is scored against what actually happened. Over time, you learn exactly when to trust your own confidence — and where it runs ahead of you.
Your journal
Newest firstJuly
We ship the redesign by the 15th
Third week with no assets and I'm starting to think this isn't a delay so much as the plan…
They come back with a better offer by end of month
Said 75%. They didn't come back at all. I keep pricing hope as if it were evidence…
Review time drops below a day within a month of the trunk-based switch
The bottleneck was always batching, and small PRs merge on their own…
Ivyra measures whether your confidence means what you think it does — and shows you exactly where it doesn't.
Know when to trust yourself
Turn “I'm pretty sure” into a number you can check
Ivyra counts how often your predictions actually come true at each confidence level. So “I'm 85% sure” stops being a feeling and becomes a frequency — one you can hold up against reality, call after call.
Your calibration, in one line
When you say 85%, it happens 38% of the time.
+47 points overconfident — your high-confidence calls land less often than you claim.
The calibration curve
See it across every confidence level
Each dot groups the predictions you made at a similar confidence, then plots that confidence against how often those calls actually came true.
- The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration — where saying 70% means it happens 70% of the time.
- Dots below the line mean it happened less often than you said; above means more often.
- The closer your dots hug the diagonal, the more your confidence can be trusted.
Calibration curve
Sample dataThis isn't your data yet — it's what a calibration curve looks like.
Before you commit
Your own track record, at the moment you predict
As you write a new entry, Ivyra finds the calls you've made like it before and shows how they actually turned out — a plain frequency, surfaced before you lock in your confidence. It states what happened and stops there.
Before you save
You've said 75% or higher on 6 calls like this. 2 landed.
The only read that fires before a call, not after it.
The record
It reads back like a journal
Every prediction is a dated entry in your own words: the claim, your confidence, and why you believed it — frozen the moment you save. Months later it's a timeline of your thinking, honest because the score won't let it drift.
Not a blank page — every entry is a prediction, anchored to a claim. The reasoning is optional: a sentence or a paragraph, and it's the part you'll read back.
We ship the redesign by the 15th
Why I think so
Third week with no assets and I'm starting to think this isn't a delay so much as the plan. Still, the team has pulled these in before — I want that to be true, so maybe I'm giving it more weight than I should.
Locks when you save.
Grounded in research
Built on what the research shows works
The loop Ivyra runs — make a call, see what happens, get a real score, adjust — is one of the most studied ways to improve calibration. A few of the findings we built on:
Training moves the needle
In a four-year, government-sponsored forecasting tournament, people who did a short probabilistic-reasoning exercise — under an hour — went on to make about 6–11% more accurate predictions than an untrained group, in every year of the study.
Chang, Chen, Mellers & Tetlock — Judgment and Decision Making (2016) ↗
The feedback loop works in the wild
Weather forecasters are the classic case: their probability forecasts are strikingly well-calibrated — when they say a 70% chance of rain, it rains on about 70% of those days — a benchmark of what steady, scored feedback produces.
Murphy & Winkler — J. Royal Statistical Society, Series C (1977) ↗
But a score alone isn't enough
A 2025 experiment found that showing people their calibration score and an over/under-confidence readout did not, on its own, improve their calibration. A bare number doesn't teach — which is exactly why Ivyra never stops at one.
These are findings about calibration in general, not a promise about your results. We lean on the mechanism the evidence supports — and because a bare score doesn't teach on its own, Ivyra pairs every number with plain-language interpretation.
Start your track record today
It takes about thirty seconds to log your first entry. In a few weeks, you'll know something about yourself most people never do: how often you're actually right.