A decision journal that scores your expectations against real outcomes.
Every entry pairs a decision with a checkable success criterion. When it resolves, deterministic scoring shows exactly how your stated confidence tracked what actually happened.
Your journal
Newest firstJuly
We ship the redesign by the 15th
Third week with no assets and I'm starting to think this isn't a delay so much as the plan…
They come back with a better offer by end of month
Said 75%. They didn't come back at all. I keep pricing hope as if it were evidence…
Review time drops below a day within a month of the trunk-based switch
The bottleneck was always batching, and small PRs merge on their own…
Ivyra measures whether your confidence means what you think it does — and shows you exactly where it doesn't.
Know when to trust yourself
Turn “I'm pretty sure” into a number you can check
Ivyra counts how often your calls land at each confidence level. So “I'm 85% sure” stops being a feeling and becomes a frequency — one you can hold up against reality, call after call.
Your calibration, in one line
When you say 85%, it happens 38% of the time.
+47 points overconfident — your high-confidence calls land less often than you claim.
The calibration curve
See it across every confidence level
Each dot groups the calls you made at a similar confidence, then plots that confidence against how often those calls actually came true.
- The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration — where saying 70% means it happens 70% of the time.
- Dots below the line mean it happened less often than you said; above means more often.
- The closer your dots hug the diagonal, the more your confidence can be trusted.
Calibration curve
Sample dataThis isn't your data yet — it's what a calibration curve looks like.
Before you commit
Your own track record, at the moment you decide
As you write a new entry, Ivyra finds the calls you've made like it before and shows how they actually turned out — a plain frequency, surfaced before you lock in your confidence. It states what happened and stops there.
Before you save
You've said 75% or higher on 6 calls like this. 2 landed.
The only read that fires before a call, not after it.
The record
It reads back like a journal
Every entry pairs a decision with a checkable success criterion, in your own words — the choice, your confidence in how it plays out, and why you believed it — frozen the moment you save. Months later it's a timeline of your thinking, honest because the score won't let it drift.
Not a blank page — every entry is a decision, anchored to a criterion you can check. The reasoning is optional: a sentence or a paragraph, and it's the part you'll read back.
We ship the redesign by the 15th
Why I think so
Third week with no assets and I'm starting to think this isn't a delay so much as the plan. Still, the team has pulled these in before — I want that to be true, so maybe I'm giving it more weight than I should.
Locks when you save.
Grounded in research
Built on what the research shows works
The loop Ivyra runs — make a call, see what happens, get a real score, adjust — is one of the most studied ways to improve calibration. A few of the findings we built on:
Training moves the needle
In a four-year, government-sponsored forecasting tournament, people who did a short probabilistic-reasoning exercise — under an hour — went on to make about 6–11% more accurate predictions than an untrained group, in every year of the study.
Chang, Chen, Mellers & Tetlock — Judgment and Decision Making (2016) ↗
The feedback loop works in the wild
Weather forecasters are the classic case: their probability forecasts are strikingly well-calibrated — when they say a 70% chance of rain, it rains on about 70% of those days — a benchmark of what steady, scored feedback produces.
Murphy & Winkler — J. Royal Statistical Society, Series C (1977) ↗
But a score alone isn't enough
A 2025 experiment found that showing people their calibration score and an over/under-confidence readout did not, on its own, improve their calibration. A bare number doesn't teach — which is exactly why Ivyra never stops at one.
These are findings about calibration in general, not a promise about your results. We lean on the mechanism the evidence supports — and because a bare score doesn't teach on its own, Ivyra pairs every number with plain-language interpretation.
Start your track record today
It takes about a minute to log your first entry. In a few weeks, you'll know something about yourself most people never do: how often your confidence matches what actually happens.